News

OK, what's a 3G device? and how many does America have?

"For years, the American mobile industry has aspired to the level of sophistication of the European market," observed Mark Donovan, senior vice president and senior analyst, comScore. "Today, Americans have finally caught up with Europeans in adoption of 3G."

The quote comes from an announcement which comScore will elaborate on next week at CTIA but which, tantalisingly, contains only the bare-bones facts: that in devices, the US has caught up with Europe.

Specifically: "The United States has caught up with Western Europe in the adoption of 3G, with 28.4 percent of American mobile subscribers having 3G devices versus 28.3 percent in the largest countries in Europe."

What devices? No details available till next week. What about coverage? no details till next week.

But the news is dismal for European operators who have sunk vast sums into the 3G infrastructure, because it implies that European phone owners are happy to carry on with ordinary 2G phones on the GSM standard. Americans have far less access to GSM networks and a viable alternative in the existing CDMA infrastructure. If they want a new phone, they are more likely to skip GSM and go straight to 3G.

However, the question of "what devices?" is crucial to understanding these figures. Much of the growth in genuine 3G usage in Europe recently has been 3G data devices, not phones (which typically use GSM even if they are 3G phones).

So the question which comScore will be asked at CTIA will be: "How does 3G coverage compare, in the US, with Europe?" - and the answer may contain clues as to which market will see most growth in the next half decade.

Tables:

Percent of subscribers with 3G Devices - 3 month average ending June

Area	Penetration June 2007	Penetration June 2008	point change
Germany	15.1%	23.9%	8.1
Spain	22.5%	37.2%	14.7
France	12.6%	17.1%	4.5
Italy	32.1%	38.3%	6.2
United Kingdom	19.9%	27.6%	7.7
Europe total	20.3%	28.3%	8.0
United States	16.7%	28.4%	11.7

Total Subscribers (in 000s) with 3G Devices - 3 month average ending June

Area	subscribers June 2007	subscribers June 2008	Growth Y/Y
Germany	7,021	11,732	67.1%
Spain	7,207	12,640	75.4%
France	5,616	7,958	41.7%
Italy	14,462	18,008	24.5%
United Kingdom	8,964	13,100	46.1%
Europe (5 countries)	43,270	63,437	46.6%
United States	35,651	64,207	80.1%

It all goes to show: nobody can match Spanish 3G growth. And France really doesn't care a damn; but US growth will put it further ahead, soon!

Source: comScore MobiLens